Chris “Who?” Huhne
MP for Eastleigh
Majority 568 over Tories
Swing required for Tory victory: 0.57%
Mark “Hamster” Oaten
MP for Winchester and the Mekong Delta
Majority 7476 over Tories
Swing required for Tory victory: 6.06%
On current form, the Tories should experience a swing from the LibDems at the next General Election.
Perhaps the Liberals should take care to elect a leader with a likelihood of retaining their own seat - could get embarrassing otherwise…
recessmonkey@gmail.com
editor[at]recessmonkey.com
Loading ...
Wasn’t there a sizeable (and against the national trend) swing against Simon Hughes in 2005?
How’s Ming doing on the safe seat front?
elephunt said this on January 16th, 2006 at 6:17 pm
Lib Dem Leadership Contenders in Potential Swing SeatsRecess Monkey has made the very good point that Lib Dem leadership contenders Chris Huhne and Mark Oaten could both easily lose their seats to the Conservatives at the next election.
…
Undercover Treehugger said this on January 17th, 2006 at 12:01 am
Ming has a 33% majority over the Tories - 98th safest of all MPs. Not bad.
Simon Hughes suffered a 5.9% swing from Lib Dem to Lab at the last election, but still has a 14% majority over them.
Martin Owen said this on January 17th, 2006 at 12:05 am
Isn’t there an effect whereby an MP who becomes leader receives a boost in his own backyard? Might that not be a a tactic to desperately cling to one of those seats?
Oz.
Oz Warren said this on January 17th, 2006 at 9:52 am
Steady on now!
“On current form…”?? It’s three and a half years until the probable date of the next election. Is that comment not just a teensy weensy bit silly?
Huhney Monster said this on January 17th, 2006 at 11:33 am
You’ve got it all wrong. It’s Sarah Teather who is really a hamster, not Oaten.
David Boothroyd said this on January 17th, 2006 at 1:42 pm
I thought Sarah Teather was more of a gerbil…
Run Seven said this on January 17th, 2006 at 4:31 pm
Any psephologist worth their salt knows that Lib Dems generally buck uniform swings largely down to their target seat strategy.
They may look vulnerable in some seats but it does not necessarily correspond that a swing from Labour to Conservative (or the other way round) would mean oblivion to the Lib Dems in those seats where their main challengers are the party who benefit from a national swing.
Love Boat said this on January 17th, 2006 at 8:03 pm
Didn’t I meet you somewhere last night?
skinhead said this on January 17th, 2006 at 11:14 pm