Inamicus of the LabourWatch website is gloating over indications that there may be a breakaway movement from the Labour Party for the North East Regional Assembly.
http://labour-watch.blogspot.com/2004/08/north-east-breakaway-party-formed-by.html
What Inamicus fails to grasp is what this means for the LibDems. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, the LibDems are undoubtedly treated unfairly, however, the electorate is not stupid and understands how the system works. So, over time, the third party tends to accrue votes in protest against one or the other of the two major parties until we get to the situation where we are now, where increasing numbers of LibDems are being elected through FPP and at the expense of both major parties.
Under PR, the LibDems will face a different future. Wherever you look in the world, under PR, parties tend to fragment. This is because minor parties have a better chance of getting elected representatives - so any ambitious politician or one with policy priorities slightly differing from their party can set up a new party with the chance of being part of a government within 10 years rather than 30, 40 or 50.
So disaffected Tory supporters will be drawn to an alternative right-wing party (UKIP perhaps?) and disaffected Labour supporter can go to an alternative left-wing party. The Scottish Socialists are an example of how this can happen.
But where does this leave the LibDems? Under PR, there is no need for protest votes to go to the LibDems when there are other parties more closely aligned to voters’ beliefs, which is probably why there is so much jostling going on amongst the LibDems at the moment over who will define their ideology - they will increasingly need one as we roll out regional assemblies and move to an elected Lords. If we moved to PR for the Commons and for Local Authorities, there would be very little reason left for the LibDems to exist as one party, given their splits on a range of issues from macroeconomics to pornography.
Back in the North-East, LibDems would do well not to gloat. After all, a left-wing minority party that is well led and well organised will be much more at home in a Labour-led administration than would the LibDems with their irreconcilable diversity of views. They need only look at the importance of the Green Party in German politics to catch a glimpse of the future.
Recess Monkey